In an attempt to better visualize the histogram of the 2016 presidential frontrunners, one must zoom out to thirty thousand feet and glimpse at the patterns below. While it may be true we are at best five political lifetimes away from election day, there are already discernible formations emerging, which portend to the presidential frontrunners a year hence and perhaps even to the 45th President of the United States. What metrics should we be focusing on?
For example, over 50% of Republicans favor Trump and Carson; both with no previous political experience. This crop circle has never before appeared in US politics. Assuming the Democrats will be shut out given the meager choice they provide by way of an iconoclastic democratic socialist in the persona of Bernie Sanders, the scandal-riddled functionary hawk Hillary Clinton, reason dictates this time around the Democrats won't get in the White House. Given this dynamic, expect the next Commander in Chief to be an outsider.
Jeb Bush increasingly has positioned himself as the milk carton with the expired date.
26 Presidents in US politics were previously lawyers. The odds seem to weigh heavily in favor of a presidential candidate with some legal background. That eliminates the front-runners, but favors Hillary Clinton.
Dwight Eisenhower was a military man with no prior political experience and yet he is regarded as one of the most revered Presidents in US history. Clearly, if previous legislative experience was the sine qua none of a Presidential aspirant, then how to account for such abject failures as Barack Hussein Obama (aka Barry Soetoro), George W. Bush, Richard Nixon, Lyndon B. Johnson, John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Franklin Pierce, Warren G. Harding, and James Buchanan, whose positions on graft, slavery and militarism consigned them to footnote status?
Ulysses S. Grant, the General with no prior political experience is another example of ineptness. He caved in to the political machinery of his day - euphemistically known to us as the controllers.
Dwight Eisenhower warned us of the military-industrial complex, which is fueled by propagating endless wars on phantom enemies, which in turn have a tendency to torque the National Debt.
Perhaps the metrics that matter most in picking a winning horse in this age of transparent social media, whistle-blowers and freedom of information, is not so much the charisma, the grandstanding or the political experience, as much as the intelligence, honesty, humility, humanity and the vision for a once again emancipated America. Somehow the nation senses it's at the cusp of either emerging refitted and stronger than ever, or devolving into third world status to join the ranks of Greece, as the debt hovers close to 200% of GDP. This is why this time around, every voter who does not vote should have their citizenship revoked, and every candidate should cling to the Constitution as he enters what promises to be a vicious bare-knuckles political fight.
Paddy Power spares us the circumlocution and gets right down to brass-tacks with comparative odds for the top 20 candidates. We examine the top 20 frontrunners (declared and undeclared):
1. Hillary Clinton: 11/10 odds. Wellesley College, Yale Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
2. Jeb Bush: 4/1 odds. University of Texas. Businessman. Career Politician.
3. Donald Trump: 13/2 odds. University of Pennsylvania Wharton School. Businessman.
4. Joe Biden: 10/1 odds. University of Delaware. Syracuse University Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
5. Scott Walker: 12/1 odds. Marquette University. Did not graduate. Career Politician.
6. Bernie Sanders: 12/1 odds. Brooklyn College. University of Chicago. Career Politician.
7. Marco Rubio: 14/1 odds. University of Florida. University of Miami Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
8. John Kasich: 20/1 odds. Ohio State University. Career Civil Servant. Career Politician.
9. Elizabeth Warren: 33/1 odds. University of Houston. Rutgers School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Ms. Warren will not be running in this election].
10. Rand Paul: 33/1 odds. Baylor University. Duke University School of Medicine. Ophthalmologist. Career Politician.
11. Chris Christie: 40/1 odds. University of Delaware. Seton Hall University School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician.
12. Andrew Cuomo: 40/1 odds. Fordham University. Albany Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Mr. Cuomo will not be running in this election].
13. Martin O'Malley: 40/1 odds. The Catholic University of America. University of Maryland School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician.
14. John Kerry: 40/1 odds. Yale University. Boston College Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Mr. Kerry will not be running in this election].
15. Andrew Basiago: 40/1 odds. University of California at Los Angeles. University of Cambridge. Lewis & Clark Law School. Lawyer. [Mr. Basiago will be declaring his candidacy in November, 2015].
16. Ben Carson: 40/1 odds. University of Michigan Health System. Neurosurgeon.
17. Bobby Jindal: 40/1 odds. Tulane University. Brown University. University of Oxford. Administrator. Career Politician.
18. Mitt Romney: 50/1 odds. Cranbrook School. Stanford University. Brigham Young University. Harvard Business School. Businessman. Career Politician. [Mr. Romney will not be running in this election].
19. Ted Cruz: 50:1 odds. Princeton University. Harvard Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
20. Susana Martinez. 50:1 odds. University of Texas. University of Oklahoma College of Law. Lawyer. Politician.
[Mike Huckabee's odds are also 50/1. Carly Fiorina's and Rick Santorum's are at 66/1].
What does a candidate's website project about their character and competence?
Carly Fiorina
Ulysses S. Grant, the General with no prior political experience is another example of ineptness. He caved in to the political machinery of his day - euphemistically known to us as the controllers.
Dwight Eisenhower warned us of the military-industrial complex, which is fueled by propagating endless wars on phantom enemies, which in turn have a tendency to torque the National Debt.
Perhaps the metrics that matter most in picking a winning horse in this age of transparent social media, whistle-blowers and freedom of information, is not so much the charisma, the grandstanding or the political experience, as much as the intelligence, honesty, humility, humanity and the vision for a once again emancipated America. Somehow the nation senses it's at the cusp of either emerging refitted and stronger than ever, or devolving into third world status to join the ranks of Greece, as the debt hovers close to 200% of GDP. This is why this time around, every voter who does not vote should have their citizenship revoked, and every candidate should cling to the Constitution as he enters what promises to be a vicious bare-knuckles political fight.
Paddy Power spares us the circumlocution and gets right down to brass-tacks with comparative odds for the top 20 candidates. We examine the top 20 frontrunners (declared and undeclared):
1. Hillary Clinton: 11/10 odds. Wellesley College, Yale Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
2. Jeb Bush: 4/1 odds. University of Texas. Businessman. Career Politician.
3. Donald Trump: 13/2 odds. University of Pennsylvania Wharton School. Businessman.
4. Joe Biden: 10/1 odds. University of Delaware. Syracuse University Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
5. Scott Walker: 12/1 odds. Marquette University. Did not graduate. Career Politician.
6. Bernie Sanders: 12/1 odds. Brooklyn College. University of Chicago. Career Politician.
7. Marco Rubio: 14/1 odds. University of Florida. University of Miami Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
8. John Kasich: 20/1 odds. Ohio State University. Career Civil Servant. Career Politician.
9. Elizabeth Warren: 33/1 odds. University of Houston. Rutgers School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Ms. Warren will not be running in this election].
10. Rand Paul: 33/1 odds. Baylor University. Duke University School of Medicine. Ophthalmologist. Career Politician.
11. Chris Christie: 40/1 odds. University of Delaware. Seton Hall University School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician.
12. Andrew Cuomo: 40/1 odds. Fordham University. Albany Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Mr. Cuomo will not be running in this election].
13. Martin O'Malley: 40/1 odds. The Catholic University of America. University of Maryland School of Law. Lawyer. Career Politician.
14. John Kerry: 40/1 odds. Yale University. Boston College Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician. [Mr. Kerry will not be running in this election].
15. Andrew Basiago: 40/1 odds. University of California at Los Angeles. University of Cambridge. Lewis & Clark Law School. Lawyer. [Mr. Basiago will be declaring his candidacy in November, 2015].
16. Ben Carson: 40/1 odds. University of Michigan Health System. Neurosurgeon.
17. Bobby Jindal: 40/1 odds. Tulane University. Brown University. University of Oxford. Administrator. Career Politician.
18. Mitt Romney: 50/1 odds. Cranbrook School. Stanford University. Brigham Young University. Harvard Business School. Businessman. Career Politician. [Mr. Romney will not be running in this election].
19. Ted Cruz: 50:1 odds. Princeton University. Harvard Law School. Lawyer. Career Politician.
20. Susana Martinez. 50:1 odds. University of Texas. University of Oklahoma College of Law. Lawyer. Politician.
[Mike Huckabee's odds are also 50/1. Carly Fiorina's and Rick Santorum's are at 66/1].
What does a candidate's website project about their character and competence?
Real Leadership? As opposed to what? As opposed to not being fired unceremoniously from Hewlett Packard?
A despondent looking Cruz marketing his gear signals: I am in desperate need of your support.
I have no hope, and this is the reason I am clinging to Trump for my dear political life.
A hint of a smile would work wonders.
Is there was a better way to communicate anonymity? (Yes. O'Malley does it better). He is lost in a sea of faces, as is his campaign.
Clashing graphic styles at the bottom project a mishmash of policies.
His Youtube channel is an utter disaster.
Ben Carson
I am going to sit this one out and wait.
Great shot for a book cover; not the best image for a Presidential frontrunner.
The contemplative statesman-in-the-wings sitting in a dark background hints at what we can expect: a lot of thought in dark times, and very little action.
Martin O'Malley
Obscurity redefined. Tucked away neatly in the lower right quadrant as opposed to the upper left quadrant where the eye first begins to scan a page, Martin's website mirrors his amorphous and beleaguered campaign.
A Youtube video is the landing page of his website. It resembles a Police Alert. Chris intends to subjugate the American people to voting for him by instilling fear and angst.
This is an engaging voter-friendly site. A toothy smile would have been preferable. The issues and the slogan are hip and timely; except the issues in the foreground are obstructing our view of Rand. Too much crammed into a small space.
The Dr. could have come across as more personable if he had simply introduced himself by his first name.
The ruffled hair loses me. This is not what a Presidential candidate ought to look like. And the form requesting voter registration front and center telegraphs "we can't afford to waste space or time, it's now or never".
The slogan Let's Keep Our Momentum Growing is as tiresome and mind-numbing as a twenty hour filibuster.
Note the intrusive pop-up on the upper left, strategically placed to catch our attention at the outset, whose function is to capture information about the viewer, thus violating the viewer's privacy. We see a non-descript, elevated sombre-looking juvenile senator with rolled-up sleeves next to his modelesque face and we sense that this election is more about Rubio than about America. Tucking his shirt in his pants and donning a jacket would be a first good step.
Age and wind-swept hair aside, for a far left politician this is one Centered, self-assured shot.
Had he used the White House as a backdrop he would have been a shoo-in for the job. Toothy smile, a hint of a tan, jacket, open collar, a people-person who is in it for the people. Bernie repeatedly maintains he cannot do this alone and needs us as much as we need him.
Part of the problem in the opening slideshow is that we never get to see the windows to his soul, his eyes. Subliminally, that is code for You Can't Trust Me. Add the ever mounting flubs and shift on issues and it's no wonder his campaign has tanked and cratered.
The shifty slideshow intro fits Walker's wobbly positions. The Koch brothers should have picked a more sure-footed horse.
A jubilant toothy smile and an emperor's wreath would have done it. The backdrop is too sombre for such a triumphal pose. Blue skies with a fluttering flag would have been better. Horses racing in a Colosseum would have been optimal. Is that a Nixon or a Churchill V-sign?
On the whole, this is a classy presidential landing page.
In contrast, here's an amorphous, pedestrian website to match the unimaginative, cloned Jeb.
All In For Jeb? Is this the best slogan your camp can come up with? They need to stop taking advice from your brother, Number 43. I'm Jeb Bush and I'm asking for your support?
People are trying to help, but you won't listen.
Hillary has two web sites. One is not enough. Extravagance signals control in a furtive attempt to gain favor with the American voters.
Madison Avenue is projecting a woman in cool blue attire being adored.
The reality is entirely different. She is anything but cool given her predicament and her popularity is spiralling out of control.
They are pulling all the stops to win this race for her, but unfortunately her opposition simply has too many bones to pick with her, given all the skeletons she has accumulated in her closets.
Her 11/10 odds should taper to 10/1 by year-end.
The campaign condition is critical and the websites are oozing with damage control.
Let's consider a significant pattern that emerges if we use set theory.
Of the top 20 Candidates in Paddy Power, 5 will not be running, and 1 intends to declare his candidacy in November. That leaves us with a total of 16 potential candidates.
If we consider only those candidates with 40/1 or better odds, the field is reduced to 14.
If we extract only those candidates without any previous political experience, we are left with 2.
If we create a subset of candidates who are lawyers, the number is 6.
Considering that historically there has been a strong bias for lawyers to be elected President, and given that in the Republican camp the polls favor a candidate with no previous political experience, and given that the Democrats can't possibly expect to win this election, we could predict with some certainty the next President of the United States using set theory.
